Monday, December 27, 2004

Just a few quick words today.

Much is being made of the upcoming electoral crisis in Iraq. The greater fear at this moment is that the Sunni minority will not be able to mobilize in order to produce viable candidates for the parliament. The logic follows that the Sunni minority will already feel itself the loser in the Shia/Kurd mobilization towards democratic representation, and that the continuing violence in the Sunni Triangle is such that will prevent a significant turnout, thus rendering the efforts of candidates brave enough to stay in the race, bow out due to lack of projected turnout. Taken one step further, the Sunni Minority will then find itself grossly underrepresented, and the Shia and Kurd government will draft a constitution with its own interests in mind. The pundits conclusion is that this will likely sow the seeds of a long overdue civil war.

I however, due not buy this scenario, not entirely anyway. The biggest obstacle to Sunni participation is not Sunni alienation at suddenly being the powerless minority, but the Coalitions inability to stamp out an insurgency that has yet to manifest itself as being a truly popular movement among moderate Sunnis. The Sunnis themselves have every incentive to participate in elections, precisely because they are outnumbered nearly three to one. What good would a sectarian crisis due to such a minority. The problem thus lies in the lack of political organization within Sunni dominated areas as a result of constant warfare. If the US really wants to avoid a civil war, they will find a way to deal with the insurgency that does not further deteriorate the delicate acquiescence of moderate Sunnis, and of an Iraqi population that wants to simply move on.

Tomorrow, the Wolves.

No comments:

Post a Comment